Then add to that the global political tensions – 

• The ongoing, seemingly never-ending Russia/Ukraine war
• The spreading conflict in the Middle East
• The trade wars between the US and China (China just this morning announced it will cease exporting some key computer technology components that it is a major producer of), and between Russia and the entire alliance of Western powers
• De-dollarization and the move toward the Chinese yuan becoming a more significant world reserve currency (De-dollarization is becoming more of a global phenomenon as, not just China and Russia, but the other BRICS nations as well, along with Saudi Arabia and other significant Middle Eastern kingdoms, are steadily dumping their reserves of US Treasury securities and rapidly increasing the amount of their gold reserves)

As we close in on election day, I look for rhetoric and campaign spending by both Democrats and Republicans to continue ramping up right up until the polls open on Tuesday, November 5^th. (Should we read anything into the fact that the Presidential election this year isn’t even a whole week removed from Halloween?)

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It’s simple enough to conclude that the 2024 Presidential election likely will have some impact on price action in the precious metals markets. However, forecasting exactly what that impact is likely to be – bullish or bearish…huge or moderate – involves several more degrees of difficulty. I may have to pour myself another couple of drinks before I make any predictions.

First, I’ll take a look back at the history of how gold and silver prices have reacted to previous Presidential elections. After that, I’ll recklessly hazard a prediction or two on how this year’s election outcome may affect gold and silver prices.

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Of course, there are plenty of other major drivers of gold and silver prices. So, for example, if gold and silver prices have been zooming higher in the days or weeks immediately preceding election day, then we might see something of a purely technical downside corrective retracement following the voting, regardless of which way the election goes. (On the other hand, if, say, the top 10 gold mining companies announce the day after the election that their mines have all run dry – that there’s apparently hardly any gold left in the Earth to mine – well, we might see a considerable price spike.)

Gold and Silver Price Action Following Previous Presidential Elections

Okay, let’s roll the clock back to about 1980 for a starting point and then work our way forward, taking a look at how gold and silver prices performed following the election of a Republican or a Democrat.

Overall, what’s the picture? What’s the general tendency of gold and silver price reactions to either a Democrat or Republican Presidential win? Well, according to a compilation of data by the US Money Reserve, gold prices are slightly up following a Democrat being elected President and slightly down following a Republican victory at the ballot box. Looking back at election outcomes starting in 1980, the immediate post-election price action averaged out as follows:

• When a Democrat won the Presidential election, the spot price of gold averaged an increase of 0.5% for the two-week period immediately following the election.
• In contrast, in the two weeks following a Republican winning a ticket to move into the White House, gold prices averaged approximately a 1.1% decline.

So, not a drastic impact either way. There’s probably not much point in, say, buying call options on gold futures the day before the election and hoping to see them increase in value by 1,000% or more the day after. There is, however, obviously some notable difference.

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INITIAL (2 WEEKS) POST-ELECTION GOLD PRICE MOVES:

DEMOCRAT WINS – GOLD UP 0.5%

REPUBLICAN WINS – GOLD DOWN 1.1%

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Additionally, the initial up or down gold price reaction to Presidential elections apparently tends to widen a bit as more time passes. Looking at gold’s price action between election day in November and Inauguration Day the following January, the average gold price increase with a Democrat victory grew to 1.5%. In marked contrast, spot gold has, on average, dropped by around 5% by the time Inauguration Day for a Republican President rolled around. (So, while we probably can’t retire the day after the election on gold futures options, we might be able to make a few coins off of some February options by the first of the year.)

Here’s my take on these historical average price movements: I’d hazard a guess that most market analysts believe that Republicans generally do a better job of handling the economy than Democrats generally do. Therefore, it’s at least moderately more likely that having a Democrat in the White House will lead to rockier economic conditions, such as higher inflation rates (like those we’ve experienced under President Biden). That fact of economic life may lead investors to commit more of their trading capital to “safe haven” investments such as gold and silver. Conversely, investors’ view of the market landscape with a Republican in office might incline toward thinking that economic turmoil is less likely and that bigger profit opportunities lie elsewhere, such as in buying stocks.

Now, I’m sure that someone in our audience wants to ask why the downside reaction following a Republican win seems to be more substantial than the average upside reaction with a Democrat victory. Well, hell, I don’t know. 😊 My guess is that the general perception may be that Republican fiscal and monetary policy moves are somewhat more likely to have significant effects on the economy, while Democrat moves are typically less impactful. In any event, whether or not you decide to trade some February futures contracts, or buy some gold mining stocks, or purchase some bullion, it’s certainly worth noting that the initial post-election price movement in gold may, indeed, be an indicator of a price trend that might continue for at least a couple of months.

Here's an historical trend worth noting: Since 1912, incumbent Presidents have won re-election about 75% of the time (roughly three out of four times)…unless a recession occurs during the two years before a Presidential election. Now, are we in a recession? – Technically, no – HOWEVER, we are in a really sucky economy, and Democrats are rightly alarmed by the fact that voters cite “the economy” as the major factor determining their voting preference in 2024.

Gold’s Performance During a President’s Four-Year Term

Here’s an interesting chart:

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The above chart shows how gold has performed, on average, during Presidential four-year terms. It clearly shows that gold prices tend to make their largest gains – 12.82% and 11.21% - during the second and third years of each Presidential term. Based on this past historical performance, we should look for gold to outperform in 2026 and 2027.

Gold Price Action After Specific Elections

The following charts reveal gold’s price action in the immediate aftermath of each Presidential election, as well as how it was doing two months later, on Inauguration Day, going back as far as the 1980 election of President Reagan.

It’s easy to see that these charts illustrate the previously noted averages of gold tending to go slightly down following Republican victories and slightly up following Democrat wins.

However, here’s an additional chart that I think shows some interesting data:

Note that, although gold evidenced its largest immediate (two-week timeframe) post-election decline following Donald Trump’s 2016 win, by the end of Trump’s term, in 2020, it had risen to new all-time highs above $2,000 an ounce, an overall increase of approximately 75% from gold’s 2016 price level. Two points I want to make here – 

1. I think the large short-term declines in the spot price of gold that characterized Ronald Reagan’s first term win and Donald Trump’s win likely reflected the fact that both of those Presidents were clearly expected to enact significant free market and monetarist economic policies, following the classical economic theories of Milton Friedman, that would, among other things, lower inflation and tax rates, and spur economic growth – in other words, take measures that would reduce concern or uncertainty in the economy
2. Despite Trump’s election record initial gold price decline, gold prices soared higher in the final two years of his term in office. I think that price action is evidence that supports the theory that, regardless of who gets elected President, the price of gold is ultimately driven by major economic factors. During Trump’s term there were at least three of these in play – the ongoing devaluation of the purchasing price of the dollar as the Federal Reserve continued printing money like it was going out of style, the marked increase in demand caused by central bank gold buying, and the growing move toward de-dollarization.

Although the immediate, short-term price action in gold around elections tends to follow the historical patterns of Democrat-up and Republican-down, the long-term price action shows little, if any, correlation with which political party is in power. Gold prices fell consistently and substantially during the two terms of Democrat President Bill Clinton, but spot gold nearly doubled in price over the two terms of Republican President George W. Bush. Plus, there was a bear market in gold under Clinton, but a bull market under fellow Democrat President Obama – and a bear market under Reagan, but a bull market under fellow Republican George W. Bush. Again, I think this is more evidence that basic economic conditions ultimately override election-related effects on the gold market.

Beyond the 2024 Election – Other Factors Driving Gold Prices

Here’s the thing – regardless of which political party wins the White House in any given election year, there are always other very significant, ongoing, basic fundamental factors that are likely to be more important in determining how gold will perform. For example, looking back at the 1970s, Jimmy Carter becoming President likely wasn’t nearly as important a driver of gold prices spiking to nearly $1,000, and silver to an all-time high of $50 an ounce, as was the enormously high inflation rate that was already present earlier in the decade, along with the mounting political tensions in the Middle East and the oil embargo.

On a similar note, it was much more likely the financial crisis of 2008 – rather than Barack Obama being elected President – that spiked gold to more than double in price between 2008 and 2011.

Therefore, although the two are inescapably related, investors looking to profit from investments in gold and silver will do better to focus on basic economics rather than just on politics. Among the fundamental economic facts that have driven gold and silver prices strongly higher thus far in 2024 are high inflation, the move toward de-dollarization, and a massive increase in central bank gold buying.

What Will Gold Do in Reaction to the 2024 Election?

So, how do I think gold prices will react to the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election? Well, I think there’s a pretty strong case for gold prices to follow the noted historical tendencies, at least in the immediate aftermath of the election results. A Biden win, which would signal another four years of economic policies that pushed the inflation rate to nearly 10%, would likely see bullish gold price action. A Trump win, signaling a return to more conservative economic policies, might initially dampen gold’s current bull run.

However, I don’t think that the immediate post-election price action in gold will initiate any new controlling trend. Ultimately, I don’t think that there’s any stopping the overall strong upside momentum in gold and silver prices. So, even if there’s an immediate post-election dip in precious metals prices, I don’t expect it to last, nor to signal the start of an overall bear market for gold and silver. No matter who is elected President, growing central bank buying, de-dollarization, and inflation are likely to continue driving gold prices substantially higher over the course of the next four years. That’s my best guess anyway.

Another thing that I believe argues strongly for just looking at the overall market pressures – which are, at the moment anyway, decidedly bullish – on gold prices, rather than at the election outcome, is the fact that I think you can throw historical pattern norms out the window, because this election is anything but normal. The United States is more feverishly politically divided than it’s ever been. The Democrats are obviously trying everything short of outright assassination to prevent Trump from being re-elected. And Trump is relentlessly swinging merciless haymakers at Biden. There’s also rarely been such a stark policy contrast between two Presidential candidates.

How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Affect the Price of Gold? - Summary

Historically, gold prices have experienced a slight bump up when a Democrat wins the White House, and a slight decline when a Republican wins. But I don’t think that any initial post-election gold price action in 2024 is likely to prove a determining factor as far as the overall long-term trend in gold and silver prices.

I’m in the same camp as many other precious metals market analysts who expect gold and silver to continue enjoying a bull market in 2024 and beyond, regardless of the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election. Economic conditions (including inflation) in the US and globally, record levels of central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, and continuing political and economic uncertainty worldwide are strong supportive factors for gold and silver prices.

(Note: This has to do with the Congressional races. A report from the World Gold Council stated that when Congress is “gridlocked” – that is, the Democrats control one house of Congress and Republicans control the other house – gold prices tend to rise. Currently, it appears that Republicans have a good chance of winning control of the Senate in 2024, but may or may not be able to maintain their majority in the House.)

• J.B. Maverick

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Sources:

https://www.royalmint.com/invest/discover/gold-news/us-elections/

https://www.usmoneyreserve.com/news/executive-insights/price-of-gold-after-presidential-elections/

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-during-presidential-election-cycle-201609091316

https://www.goldpriceforecast.com/explanations/presidential-election-cycle-gold/

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