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Welcome to this week’s precious metals roundup from True Gold Republic, where we dive into gold and silver price movements, key market drivers, and what lies ahead. As of May 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs’ bullish call to increase gold positions has electrified the market, with tariffs and central bank demand fueling the rally. Let’s break it down.
Gold shone brightly this week, climbing 2.1% to $3,362.70 per ounce, its strongest weekly gain in six weeks. Silver trailed with a 1.1% rise, trading at $32.40 per ounce after briefly touching $33. The gold-silver ratio hovered around 102, reflecting gold’s dominance driven by safe-haven demand. Midweek, both metals dipped as tariff concerns eased and the U.S. dollar firmed, but gold’s resilience held firm. Platinum also hit a one-year high, signaling broader strength in precious metals.
1. Goldman Sachs’ Bullish Outlook
Goldman Sachs raised its end-2025 gold price target to $3,700 per ounce from $3,300, urging investors to boost gold allocations. Citing robust central bank buying and ETF inflows, the bank sees gold as a hedge against recession risks, geopolitical tensions, and potential Federal Reserve independence concerns. In a recession scenario, Goldman projects gold could hit $3,880, with extreme cases pushing prices to $4,500.
2. Tariffs Driving Safe-Haven Demand
President Trump’s tariff plans, including 25% levies on autos and semiconductors and reciprocal tariffs set for April 2, kept markets on edge. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could weaken growth and stoke inflation, bolstering gold’s appeal. A brief pause in tariff fears after Trump delayed a 50% EU tariff until July 9 tempered gains, but trade war risks continue to support gold.
3. Central Bank Buying
Central banks purchased 332.9 tonnes of gold in Q4 2024, pushing annual demand above 1,000 tonnes for the third straight year. Emerging markets, wary of U.S. debt and geopolitical shifts, are driving this trend. Goldman Sachs expects this structural demand to underpin gold prices into 2025.
4. Federal Reserve and Rates
Markets anticipate two to three 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, supporting gold as a non-yielding asset. However, tariff-driven inflation and a tight labor market could limit the Fed’s flexibility, potentially capping gold’s short-term upside.
5. Equities Volatility
The S&P 500 dropped 10% since the Trump administration began, with investors pulling funds from U.S. equities for the fourth consecutive week. Global equity inflows slowed, and tech stocks wavered as tariffs threatened earnings. Gold’s 25% year-to-date gain contrasts sharply with equities’ struggles, reinforcing its role as a portfolio hedge.
Tariffs are a key driver for gold, amplifying economic uncertainty and inflation fears. While a stronger U.S. dollar from tariffs could pressure gold, its role as a hedge against currency devaluation and trade disruptions has prevailed. Silver, however, faces risks from tariff-related slowdowns in industrial demand, particularly in China’s solar sector, despite its correlation with gold.
Equities vs. Precious Metals
Gold’s 25% year-to-date surge outpaces silver’s 12% gain and dwarfs the S&P 500’s decline. As traditional hedges like U.S. Treasuries falter, investors are turning to gold to offset equity drawdowns. True Gold Republic sees this divergence as a signal to prioritize precious metals in diversified portfolios.
Key factors to watch include:
U.S. PCE Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could clarify rate-cut prospects. Persistent inflation may limit cuts, pressuring gold short-term.
Tariff Updates: Developments on April 2 reciprocal tariffs or EU tariff delays could sway safe-haven flows. Escalation would likely lift gold further.
Central Bank Moves: Continued buying, especially from China’s central bank, will support gold’s floor.
Equities Pressure: A deeper equity sell-off could trigger margin-driven gold sales, but dips are likely buyable, per Goldman Sachs.
Silver and Platinum: Silver’s upside depends on gold’s momentum, but industrial risks linger. Platinum’s strength may persist if demand holds.
Goldman Sachs’ call to increase gold positions aligns with our view at True Gold Republic: gold is a must-have in today’s volatile markets. With prices targeting $3,700 and potential to hit $4,000, we recommend a 5-15% portfolio allocation. Silver offers higher-beta exposure but requires caution due to industrial headwinds. Consider dollar-cost averaging to capture long-term gains while navigating short-term swings.
Join us next week for another True Gold Republic roundup as we track gold’s ascent. Until then, stay golden!
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
Goldman Sachs gold price forecast and recommendations: [Goldman Sachs Research Reports, May 2025]
Tariff policies and market impacts: [Reuters, Bloomberg, May 2025]
Central bank gold demand data: [World Gold Council, Q4 2024 Report]
Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: [Federal Reserve Statements, CME FedWatch Tool, May 2025]
S&P 500 and equities performance: [MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, May 2025]
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